BrazilAsian manufacturers at forefront of the global hydrogen vehicles market
The global market for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles – dominated by Asia Pacific manufacturers like Toyota, Hyundai, Foton, and others – is expected to grow by 28% up to 2034, according to a report from YCP Auctus.
The number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) on the road worldwide is expected to grow from only 23,000 today to around 353,000 units in 2034. That growth will be driven by the general growth in net-zero commitments, pushed by governments through regulations and subsidies.
Traditional fossil fuel vehicles have already been largely cast aside by battery-operated electric vehicles (BEVs), with stakeholders understanding that a gradual fade-out is necessary to replace combustion engines. So in that way, many consumers are already primed to accept sustainable vehicles.
Despite that, HFCVs are not really being marketed to consumers just yet. Rather, the first hydrogen vehicles to be seen on the road in significant numbers are likely to be commercial vehicles.
Overall, manufacturers have not been exceedingly optimistic about hydrogen vehicles because manufacturing remains prohibitively expensive and refueling infrastructure is not yet ready to meet a significant increase in fleet numbers.
Japan’s Toyota is currently developing HFCV trucks and vans, while Korean carmaker Hyundai is reportedly working on buses. Honda is working on a personal vehicle that runs as a hydrogen-battery hybrid.
Meanwhile in China, manufacturer Foton has also been prioritizing commercial hydrogen vehicles, with an ambitious goal to eventually derive more than half of its total sales from new energy vehicles by 2050.
Japan is a major leader in hydrogen vehicles – and not just in Asia, but also at a global level. And while China is world’s largest producer of hydrogen fuel, Japan is slightly ahead in the race to actually getting a viable hydrogen vehicle to market.
A joint venture between Japan’s Nissan and Chinese manufacturer DongFeng has put a fleet of hydrogen vehicles on the roads in Guangzhou City, though it is only a commercial demo. This particular vehicle will only become available to consumers later on.
Germany has also gotten in on the fun, highlights the YCP Auctus report, with BMW currently testing a hydrogen-fueled SUV and Daimler Trucks working on manufacturing heavy-duty and long-distance trucks that run on hydrogen.
Challenges on the road
But there is one main challenge to further hydrogen vehicle development, which is holding many manufacturers back: High production costs. BEVs remain more popular and widespread, which makes it very hard to make HFCV competitive.
Besides the lack of availability of both hydrogen vehicles and refueling stations, the supply of hydrogen fuel itself is also lacking. It is not easy to create green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy sources), so most hydrogen is creating using natural gas – so-called ‘blue hydrogen’ – which means it is not fully sustainable.
The lack of green hydrogen production makes hydrogen vehicles less attractive for governments and companies that have tough sustainability goals to meet. Scaled-up production of green hydrogen is coming, but it is not here yet.
Though China remains the world leader in hydrogen production, around 80% of Chinese hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels and less than 0.1% is green hydrogen, according to a 2023 report from the World Economic Forum.
Looking ahead on the developments in the automotive scene, the YCP Auctus report stated: “While governments and OEMs in the APAC region are actively working towards the adoption of hydrogen vehicles, it is also vital for component manufacturers to participate in this development and partner with the key stakeholders.”
